The Feku Election
In '24 Questions today, Samriddhi Sakunia investigates the use of deepfakes in the coming elections, democratic demand for authoritarianism & and a weekly roundup of taaza election khabar.
We are super excited to introduce you to our election newsletter ‘24 Questions—which we launched on March 3. All through the election season, we will send you an exclusive election goodie bag right in your inbox each week. It’s exactly what you need to tune out the exhausting negativity and noise of the election season.
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Battle of the machines: Meet the army of deep fakers
The TLDR: Parties and their consultants have already devised inventive ways to use deepfakes. How will they be deployed in the coming election—and who will create this content? Splainer investigates.
This 2024 DECODE—and the rest of the edition, in fact—is free to read—using the gift link below. No login required.
The democratic demand for authoritarianism
Written by: Election editor Chirag Chinnappa. Infographics by Sharath Ravishankar. Sharath is a Bangalore-based information designer and illustrator. Check his work out @shirtshanks
Much ink has been spilled on the slide towards autocracy around the world. Freedom is disappearing–and so is democracy. But the results of two recent surveys tell a more complicated story. Yes, authoritarianism is on the rise–but so is the demand for it. Are nations throwing up more dictatorial leaders because the voters want it? If so, what does that say about democracy?
The first chart: Support for authoritarianism
Let’s start with the Global Attitudes Survey conducted by the Pew Research Center. It surveyed 24 countries about their citizens’ views of democracy and political representation. The surveys were conducted last year–and the results released in February. All the nations polled—be it Canada, South Korea, Kenya or Argentina–hold elections. India was one of them.
There is a wide variance in the percentage that say “rule by a strong leader or the military would be a good way of governing their country.” It ranges from 8% in Sweden to 85% in India. Yes, you read that right. India is at #1, in fact. The other seven countries who showed the greatest support are Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. Unsurprisingly, the greater desire for authoritarianism is linked to weaker support for a strong Opposition. Only 36% of Indians considered a free Opposition to be critical
A rising tide: As you can see above, in terms of absolute percentage, lower income countries top the list. But look at the eight countries that registered the greatest increase in support for authoritarianism—between 2017 and 2023. This set is similar but not identical. It includes Germany, where the percentage jumped from 6% to 16%—and Poland where it rose from 15% to 25%.
The second chart: The rise of authoritarianism
The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute studies publishes an annual ‘Democracy Report’—which measures the level of democracy in 180 countries. V-Dem views democracy as a spectrum—with nations moving away from or toward the two poles. So nations are not autocratic or democratic—but rather undergoing a dynamic process.
We looked at what the 2024 edition said about the eight countries that measured the greatest jump in the demand for authoritarianism in the Pew Survey. Reminder: The top eight were India, Mexico, Poland, Kenya, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina and Germany:
As you can see above, there is a strong correlation between the countries that have become more autocratic—and nations where more citizens support authoritarianism. The time period for the V-Dem index is a little larger—from 2013 to 2023—but the trend lines remain the same.
The striking anomalies: are Brazil, Argentina—and to a lesser extent, Kenya. Brazil is especially notable since it displays a sharp and sudden rise—toward democratisation. The U-turn is primarily due to the defeat of strongman Jair Bolsonaro in 2022—who was toppled by left-leaning Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva.
How did that happen—given that the demand for authoritarianism remained the same? There was no sharp change in what people wanted—and yet the result of the 2022 election was almost exactly the opposite. Should we take comfort in the result? Does Brazil disprove the seeming connection between supply and demand?
Yes and no. Bolsonaro lost the election because of economic misery. With soaring food and fuel prices, around 33 million people were experiencing hunger in 2023—a three decade high. The share of families who lacked money for food at some point in the preceding year jumped to 36% in 2021—the highest level since 2006. Lula won because he promised to end the pain–not because he promised democracy.
The lessons for India: V-Dem classifies India as an “electoral autocracy”—where “multiparty elections for the executive exist albeit with insufficient levels of fundamental requisites such as freedom of expression and association, and free and fair elections.” That’s very similar to Brazil before Lula came to power. If Brazil is any indication, Indians may remain content with authoritarian leaders until they cause great economic misery that affects their lives.
Even so, the V-Dem report also shows that the economy is necessary but insufficient reason for dramatic change. To reverse backsliding, a democracy requires a unified opposition, widespread resistance and a strong judiciary. Whether India has any of those elements remains to be seen.
For now, it seems like the ultimate irony–that so many of the world’s democracies seem to deliver exactly what people want–less democracy.
Extra reading: You can check out the Pew Survey and V-Dem report in their entirety, as well.
Researched by: Chirag Chinnappa
The Congress manifesto is here
On Friday, the Congress released its 48-page 'Nyay Patra' manifesto for the Lok Sabha polls, riding on five pillars concerning the youth, women, farmers, workers, and equity. It was released in the presence of president Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leaders Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal and P Chidambaram.
The main talking points: A nationwide socio-economic and caste census, a constitutional amendment to raise the 50% cap on reservations for SC, ST and OBC communities, legal guarantees for Minimum Support Prices (MSP), the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood, and introducing a “Rajasthan model” of cashless insurance of up to Rs 25 lakh towards granting universal healthcare.
It has also promised to bring the Women Reservation Act, 2023 into force:
The one-third reservation for women will be applied to State Assemblies that will be elected in the next round of Assembly elections in 2025. The one-third reservation for women will also be applied to the Lok Sabha that will be elected in 2029.
The promise to reserve 50% of central government jobs for women starting in 2025. You can read our Big Story for all the context on the women's reservation bill for the Parliament.
Also: A law to recognize civil unions between same-sex couples, after the Supreme Court last year refused to grant legal recognition (which the party was silent about at the time). An entire section has been dedicated to “Defending the Constitution”, including the protection of journalists and the judicial system.
A Right to Apprenticeship (RTAP): Think MNREGA, but for diploma-holders under 25 years of age. Graduates will be able to legally demand proper formal employment with either a private or public sector entity, along with an annual stipend of one lakh rupees. He explains that the financial load will be shared with the private sector:
“The scheme will benefit both the industry, the government and the students as it would provide employment, dignity and skilling to youth and will help bring down the cost of labour force for companies as the government would share the cost of apprenticeship scheme”.
This manifesto came after last weekend’s INDIA rally in Delhi. Mamata Banerjee was conspicuously absent—but Sagarika Ghose served as the Trinamool rep. Congress, OTOH, sent out its A-list—all the Gandhis plus party prez Mallikarjun Kharge. (The Hindu)
Speaking of the Congress: The party was hit by a new barrage of tax demands—Rs 17.45 billion (1,745 crore) for the years between 2014 and 2017. The IT Department told the SC that they will not pursue coercive action over the notices because they “do not want to cause problems to any political party ahead of polls”. Their appeal will be heard only on July 24, after the polls. (The Hindu)
The BJP crossovers continue
Last week, Congress leaders Gourav Vallabh and Vijender Singh jumped ship to join the BJP. According to an analysis by The Print, of the 417 Lok Sabha candidates announced so far by the BJP, 116 or 28% are defectors from other parties.
That’s more than one in four ‘adopted’ politicians from opposition parties (especially the Congress) since 2014—more in states where the BJP has traditionally been weak. With 64 defecting to the BJP in the election years alone, this strategy has been protested against by long-term party loyalists who have lost their seats. (The Print)
About them defectors: An Indian Express investigation found that 25 prominent politicians facing corruption charges have crossed over to the BJP: “They cut across party lines: 10 are from the Congress; four each from NCP and Shiv Sena; three from TMC; two from TDP; and one each from SP and YSRCP.” Of these, 23 were spared any further action after their defection. Ah, the irresistible charms of the BJP. (Indian Express)
Nomination filing begins
Rahul Gandhi filed his nomination from Wayanad on Wednesday, after calling the region his “home” and the people his “family” in a roadshow. The next day, the BJP sent down Smriti Irani to rally in support of K Surendran, their state president and candidate in the three-way contest with the CPI’s Annie Raja. Why Irani? Because she famously dislodged Rahul from Amethi, a family stronghold, by 55,000 votes in 2019. (Financial Express)
About Amethi: There is no news if Rahul will contest against Irani in Amethi, or whether the Congress will field another high-profile candidate. Meanwhile, Robert Vadra, Priyanka Gandhi’s husband, claimed: “People of [Amethi] expect him to be their representative”. There’s also the Samajwadi Party, its alliance partner to consider. (Indian Express)
Speaking of UP seats: The BJP has not fielded a single Muslim in western UP, while the SP and Bahujan Samaj Party have fielded several Muslims. Rampur, Moradabad, Sambhal and other seats of western UP comprise 23 to 42% of Muslim voters—and the biggest concern for the SP-Congress alliance will be to prevent the scattering or ‘splitting’ of Muslim votes. The reason for this concer: since 2019, the SP has not been as vocal about Muslim-related issues while the BSP has fielded Muslim candidates in every seat where there is a sizable Dalit electorate. (The Telegraph)
Electoral bonds: The latest revelations
According to The Mint, electoral bond donations were not about ideological loyalty to any party. Of the 263 companies that bought bonds more than once, only 91 donated to the same party every time. The BJP had the most number of repeat corporate donors (43) demonstrating loyalty, the biggest being Gurugram-based DLF Commercial Developers. The Trinamool Congress came in next, with 16 loyal donors. (The Mint)
OTOH: Thirty three companies that were making a loss donated a total of Rs 5.82 billion (582 crore)—of which 75% went to BJP. And the source of funding for 45 companies that donated electoral bonds is shady. The paper plainly spells the implications out: “That these loss-making companies made such substantial donations indicates they could be acting as fronts for other firms or have misreported their profits and losses — raising the possibility of money laundering.” That’s truly ironic given the bonds were supposed to eliminate black money from politics. We recommend checking out The Hindu investigation.
A list of good reads
One: Carnegie Endowment has a fascinating deep-dive explaining the rising female voter turnout amid and its possible impact on electoral dynamics.
Two: Financial Times (gift link) compares the BJP government’s spending on different welfare schemes compared to previous governments.
Three: The Hindu reports on the revival of caste rivalries between the Rajputs and Patels in Rajasthan after a BJP Minister’s comments praising the Dalit community’s refusal to bow to the British.
Four: This research paper by Kiran Garimella and Abhilash Datta explores the ‘Arnab effect’ on social media. At least 60% of TV debates featured pro-BJP or anti-opposition content and there was a clear flow of information between TV shows and social media led by BJP leaders and influencers.
The political consultant: Do they really matter?
You should watch: Centre for Policy Research’s conversation series—‘How India votes’. This episode focuses on political strategists. Who are they and what exactly do they do? And do they even make a difference to the outcome? The conversation is broad-ranging and illuminating.
Why it’s worth your time: The panellists. You hear from a diverse range of guests—from academics to consulting company founders and individual political gurus. It’s a rare opportunity to understand a little-covered industry—beyond the breathless coverage of stars like Prashant Kishor.
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